Kentucky's economy should grow at a rate of 2.7 percent in 1996, say economists at UK's College of Business and Economics. This growth will be fueled mostly by modest growth in the manufacturing sector, even though the growth may be slower than in recent years.
Eric Thompson, an economist at UK's Center for Business and Economic Research, noted Kentucky's manufacturing sector has outperformed the nation during the last five years.
"While manufacturing industries are expected to contract nationally, Kentucky remains a good and competitive place to do business," he said.
The predicted change in the state's economy is not solely because of manufacturing.
"Overall job growth is forecast to be higher than nationally," Thompson said.
A 2.1 percent growth in Kentucky employment in 1996 is expected, which is better than the predicted 1.9 percent growth nationally, he said.
An exception would be in coal mining, which Thompson said is expected to experience further job loss. The number of employees in the coal mining business will decrease by 1.6 percent because of improved technology, he said.
At the same time, UK finance professor Charles Haywood sees a slowing in the growth of personal income in the state for 1996. The growth rate of personal income will decrease from 6 percent a year to between 5.2 and 5.5 percent a year, he said.
Haywood also said that he is seeing signs that not as many people will be seeking jobs in the new year.
"We've sort of used up our available supply of labor in some part of the state," he said.
The predicted change in the economy could mean a couple of things for UK and its students.
Thompson said the largest effect on graduating and non-graduating students would be in getting jobs.
"For graduating seniors who will be looking for jobs in Kentucky, (economic growth) is good now because a growth in the economy means a better chance of getting a good job," he said.
The Director of UK's Center for Business and Economic Research Mark Berger said that the growth in the economy could make jobs for students and graduates more plentiful and possibly lead to higher wages.
Berger also thinks the growth in the economy could mean better things for the University itself. He said that 30 to 45 percent of UK's budget comes from the state, which in turn comes from tax revenue.
The growth in the economy could mean more money from the University from the state.
"The better the economy is," he said, "the better the possibility of funds for higher education."